Stock market after midterm elections: What S&P 500 history shows

Executive Briefing

According to reporting by CNBC International Markets, Midterms historically precede a strong year for the S&P 500. What to know if Democrats win back Congress

Detailed Factual Report

Markets are sweating it out ahead of the midterm elections, but the event historically heralds strong performance for stocks — regardless of whether it's a red or blue wave, split decision, or status quo in Washington.

The S&P 500 tends to perform well after both midterm and presidential elections. According to a CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns after elections from 1980 through 2024, the index rose an average of 0.2% after one day and one week, and 1.1% after one month across both presidential and midterm elections.

A year later, the index gained an average of 13.7% after midterms and 13.8% after presidential elections. Returns were positive in 91% of cases. And the S&P 500 was up after all 11 midterms from 1982 through 2022.

Short-term returns were less reliable, particularly after presidential contests, which produced slightly negative average returns after one day and one week.

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Source & Verification Provenance

Information in this article was compiled directly from records provided by CNBC International Markets. Access the primary source document at: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/stock-market-after-midterm-elections-sp-500-history.html. Reporting and editorial review conducted by the USA NOW News Desk.